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Carlos Renaux vs Caravaggio — Catarinense - 2 2022

Carlos Renaux
Carlos Renaux
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Caravaggio
Caravaggio
7/23/2023Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 9Estádio Augusto Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Carlos Renaux35%
×Draw31%
Caravaggio34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Renaux
1.02
Caravaggio
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Carlos Renaux
1.05
Caravaggio
1.61

allows per match

Carlos Renaux
0.38
Caravaggio
1.00

finishing

Carlos Renaux+0.00on par
Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Renaux ↓

Caravaggio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Carlos Renaux or draw
66%
Carlos Renaux or Caravaggio
69%
Draw or Caravaggio
65%

Winning margin

Carlos Renaux wins by 2+
13%
Caravaggio wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Carlos Renaux 1+ goals
64%
Carlos Renaux 2+ goals
27%
Carlos Renaux 3+ goals
8%
Caravaggio 1+ goals
63%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
26%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Carlos Renaux (draw refunded)
51%
Caravaggio (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Renaux at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.38 · 21 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Renaux attack 1.05 + Caravaggio defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Caravaggio attack 1.61 + Carlos Renaux defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Carlos Renaux scores more
35%
level
31%
Caravaggio scores more
34%

Carlos Renaux at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Carlos Renaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Carlos Renaux 0–1 Caravaggio

Caravaggio beat Carlos Renaux 1-0 in Catarinense - 2 on July 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Augusto Bauer in Brusque, Santa Catarina.