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Carlos Mannucci W vs Killas W — Liga Women 2026

Carlos Mannucci W
Carlos Mannucci W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Killas W
Killas W
3/29/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Apertura - 3Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Carlos Mannucci W26%
×Draw17%
Killas W57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Mannucci W
2.20
Killas W
3.20

Killas W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Carlos Mannucci W
0.80
Killas W
2.20

allows per match

Carlos Mannucci W
4.20
Killas W
3.60

finishing

Carlos Mannucci W+0.00on par
Killas W+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Mannucci W ↓

Killas W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–22%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Carlos Mannucci W or draw
43%
Carlos Mannucci W or Killas W
83%
Draw or Killas W
74%

Winning margin

Carlos Mannucci W wins by 2+
13%
Killas W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Carlos Mannucci W 1+ goals
89%
Carlos Mannucci W 2+ goals
64%
Carlos Mannucci W 3+ goals
37%
Killas W 1+ goals
96%
Killas W 2+ goals
82%
Killas W 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Carlos Mannucci W (draw refunded)
32%
Killas W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Mannucci W at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Killas W away — creates 2.20, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Mannucci W attack 0.80 + Killas W defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Killas W attack 2.20 + Carlos Mannucci W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Carlos Mannucci W scores more
26%
level
17%
Killas W scores more
57%

Killas W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Killas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Women: Carlos Mannucci W 3–2 Killas W

Carlos Mannucci W beat Killas W 3-2 in Liga Women on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.