Carlos Mannucci W vs Flamengo FBC W

Carlos Mannucci W

Preview

18:00

Flamengo FBC W

8/1/2026

Liga Women · Clausura - 2Estadio Mansiche

51%

Flamengo FBC W

model favours

30%19%51%

1–2

likely score

81%

over 2.5 goals

78%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Carlos Mannucci W30%

×Draw19%

Flamengo FBC W51%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos Mannucci WExpected goals in this matchFlamengo FBC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.50

Carlos Mannucci W

1.90

Flamengo FBC W

2.50

Flamengo FBC W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.80

creates per match

0.80

4.20

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Carlos Mannucci W

0.80

Flamengo FBC W

0.80

allows per match

Carlos Mannucci W

4.20

Flamengo FBC W

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos Mannucci W+0.00on par

Flamengo FBC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Mannucci W ↓

Flamengo FBC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Carlos Mannucci W or draw

49%

Carlos Mannucci W or Flamengo FBC W

81%

Draw or Flamengo FBC W

70%

Winning margin

Carlos Mannucci W wins by 2+

15%

Flamengo FBC W wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Carlos Mannucci W 1+ goals

85%

Carlos Mannucci W 2+ goals

56%

Carlos Mannucci W 3+ goals

29%

Flamengo FBC W 1+ goals

92%

Flamengo FBC W 2+ goals

71%

Flamengo FBC W 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Carlos Mannucci W (draw refunded)

37%

Flamengo FBC W (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Mannucci W at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Flamengo FBC W away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Mannucci W attack 0.80 + Flamengo FBC W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Flamengo FBC W attack 0.80 + Carlos Mannucci W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Carlos Mannucci W scores more

30%

level

19%

Flamengo FBC W scores more

51%

Flamengo FBC W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Flamengo FBC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

LDLLL

W

WDDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff