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Carlos Mannucci W vs Alianza Lima W — Liga Women 2026

Carlos Mannucci W
Carlos Mannucci W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alianza Lima W
Alianza Lima W
5/8/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Apertura - 6Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Carlos Mannucci W11%
×Draw16%
Alianza Lima W72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Mannucci W
0.90
Alianza Lima W
2.52

Alianza Lima W creates 180% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Carlos Mannucci W
0.80
Alianza Lima W
0.83

allows per match

Carlos Mannucci W
4.20
Alianza Lima W
1.00

finishing

Carlos Mannucci W+0.00on par
Alianza Lima W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Mannucci W ↓

Alianza Lima W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Carlos Mannucci W or draw
28%
Carlos Mannucci W or Alianza Lima W
84%
Draw or Alianza Lima W
89%

Winning margin

Carlos Mannucci W wins by 2+
4%
Alianza Lima W wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Carlos Mannucci W 1+ goals
59%
Carlos Mannucci W 2+ goals
23%
Carlos Mannucci W 3+ goals
6%
Alianza Lima W 1+ goals
92%
Alianza Lima W 2+ goals
71%
Alianza Lima W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Carlos Mannucci W (draw refunded)
14%
Alianza Lima W (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Mannucci W at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Alianza Lima W away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Mannucci W attack 0.80 + Alianza Lima W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Alianza Lima W attack 0.83 + Carlos Mannucci W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Carlos Mannucci W scores more
11%
level
16%
Alianza Lima W scores more
72%

Alianza Lima W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Alianza Lima W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Women: Carlos Mannucci W 0–1 Alianza Lima W

Alianza Lima W beat Carlos Mannucci W 1-0 in Liga Women on May 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.