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Carlos A. Mannucci vs Union Huaral — Segunda División 2018

Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Union Huaral
Union Huaral
7/22/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Mansiche (Trujillo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci58%
×Draw21%
Union Huaral22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos A. Mannucci
2.15
Union Huaral
1.25

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 72% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
2.67
Union Huaral
1.32

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.17
Union Huaral
1.64

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par
Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

Union Huaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw
78%
Carlos A. Mannucci or Union Huaral
79%
Draw or Union Huaral
42%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
35%
Union Huaral wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
88%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
63%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
36%
Union Huaral 1+ goals
71%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
36%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
73%
Union Huaral (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 2.67 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.15

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
58%
level
21%
Union Huaral scores more
22%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos A. Mannucci vs Union Huaral

Union Huaral beat Carlos A. Mannucci 4-3 in Segunda División on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche (Trujillo).