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Carlos A. Mannucci vs Union Comercio — Primera División 2026

Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
7/21/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci50%
×Draw25%
Union Comercio25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.55
Union Comercio
1.02

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 52% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 74 away

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.13
Union Comercio
0.81

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.24
Union Comercio
1.97

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw
75%
Carlos A. Mannucci or Union Comercio
75%
Draw or Union Comercio
50%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
25%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
79%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
46%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
20%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
64%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
27%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
67%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.24 · 99 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.97 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.13 + Union Comercio defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.55

Union Comercio attack 0.81 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
50%
level
25%
Union Comercio scores more
25%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos A. Mannucci vs Union Comercio

Carlos A. Mannucci and Union Comercio drew 0-0 in Primera División on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.