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Carlos A. Mannucci vs San Marcos — Segunda División 2018

Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
AWD
3 – 0
San Marcos
San Marcos
4/25/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci66%
×Draw19%
San Marcos15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos A. Mannucci
2.25
San Marcos
0.99

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 127% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
2.67
San Marcos
0.82

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.17
San Marcos
1.82

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par
San Marcos+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

San Marcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw
85%
Carlos A. Mannucci or San Marcos
81%
Draw or San Marcos
34%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
42%
San Marcos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
89%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
65%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
39%
San Marcos 1+ goals
63%
San Marcos 2+ goals
26%
San Marcos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
81%
San Marcos (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

San Marcos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 2.67 + San Marcos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.25

San Marcos attack 0.82 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
66%
level
19%
San Marcos scores more
15%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carlos A. Mannucci vs San Marcos — Match Preview

Carlos A. Mannucci face San Marcos on April 25, 2026 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.