Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carlos A. Mannucci vs LOS Caimanes — Segunda División 2018

Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
LOS Caimanes
LOS Caimanes
9/16/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 25Estadio Mansiche (Trujillo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci71%
×Draw16%
LOS Caimanes14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos A. Mannucci
2.81
LOS Caimanes
1.17

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 140% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
2.67
LOS Caimanes
1.16

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.17
LOS Caimanes
2.96

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par
LOS Caimanes+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

LOS Caimanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw
86%
Carlos A. Mannucci or LOS Caimanes
84%
Draw or LOS Caimanes
29%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
50%
LOS Caimanes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
94%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
76%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
52%
LOS Caimanes 1+ goals
69%
LOS Caimanes 2+ goals
33%
LOS Caimanes 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
84%
LOS Caimanes (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

LOS Caimanes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 2.67 + LOS Caimanes defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.81

LOS Caimanes attack 1.16 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
71%
level
16%
LOS Caimanes scores more
14%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Carlos A. Mannucci 3–1 LOS Caimanes

Carlos A. Mannucci beat LOS Caimanes 3-1 in Segunda División on September 16, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche (Trujillo).