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Carlos A. Mannucci vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2026

Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
2/10/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci49%
×Draw25%
Comerciantes Unidos26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.55
Comerciantes Unidos
1.06

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 46% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 63 away

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.13
Comerciantes Unidos
0.89

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.24
Comerciantes Unidos
1.98

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw
74%
Carlos A. Mannucci or Comerciantes Unidos
75%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
51%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
25%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
79%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
46%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
20%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
65%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
29%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
65%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.24 · 99 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.13 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.55

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
49%
level
25%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
26%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos A. Mannucci vs Comerciantes Unidos

Comerciantes Unidos beat Carlos A. Mannucci 3-1 in Primera División on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.