Carlos A. Mannucci vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 43+ matches
Carlos A. Mannucci47%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Carlos A. Mannucci creates 41% more chances
Season form · 99 home / 43 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Carlos A. Mannucci ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.24 · 99 matches
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.84 · 43 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.13 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.48
Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.86 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Carlos A. Mannucci at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Alianza Lima
Cusco
UniversitarioClub Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Huancayo
Sport Boys
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
UTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Carlos A. Mannucci host Club Deportivo Los Chankas on Saturday, 9 March 2024 at 21:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Primera División: Carlos A. Mannucci 2–1 Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Carlos A. Mannucci beat Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-1 in Primera División on March 9, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.