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Carlos A. Mannucci vs Alfredo Salinas — Segunda División 2018

Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
4/29/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Municipal de Casa Grande (Casagrande)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci77%
×Draw14%
Alfredo Salinas9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos A. Mannucci
2.69
Alfredo Salinas
0.80

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 236% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
2.67
Alfredo Salinas
0.43

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.17
Alfredo Salinas
2.71

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par
Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

Alfredo Salinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw
91%
Carlos A. Mannucci or Alfredo Salinas
86%
Draw or Alfredo Salinas
23%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
56%
Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
93%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
74%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
49%
Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
55%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
19%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
90%
Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 2.67 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.69

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
77%
level
14%
Alfredo Salinas scores more
9%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos A. Mannucci vs Alfredo Salinas

Carlos A. Mannucci beat Alfredo Salinas 2-1 in Segunda División on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Casa Grande (Casagrande).