Carlisle vs York — League #43 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Carlisle40%
York36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 4 home / 48 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Carlisle ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Carlisle at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches
York away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Carlisle attack 2.00 + York defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54
York attack 1.63 + Carlisle defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Carlisle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
York substitutes
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sampleYork
Sutton Utd
Boreham Wood
Rochdale
Southend
Scunthorpe
Boston United
FC Halifax Town
Hartlepool
Wealdstone
Woking
AltrinchamCarlisle
Tamworth
Yeovil Town
Braintree
Brackley Town
Morecambe
Gateshead
Truro City
Forest Green
Aldershot Town
Solihull Moors
EastleighIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Carlisle host York on Wednesday, 21 January 2026 at 19:45. The match is part of the League #43 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Carlisle vs York
York beat Carlisle 3-0 in League #43 on January 21, 2026.
Goals: J. Stones (6'), A. Hunt (75' pen), A. Newby (90').
The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle.