Carlisle 1–0 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Carlisle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Walsall

T. Abrahams 88'

11/27/2021

League Two · Round 19Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle39%

×Draw27%

Walsall34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.17

Carlisle

1.29

Walsall

1.17

Carlisle creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 156 away

1.26

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Walsall

1.13

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Walsall

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

66%

Carlisle or Walsall

73%

Draw or Walsall

61%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

18%

Walsall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

72%

Carlisle 2+ goals

37%

Carlisle 3+ goals

14%

Walsall 1+ goals

69%

Walsall 2+ goals

33%

Walsall 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

54%

Walsall (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Walsall attack 1.13 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlisle scores more

39%

level

27%

Walsall scores more

34%

Carlisle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

M. Howard

Carlisle · G

8.2

Match Events

37'

T. Charters← J. Riley

63'

T. Abrahams← B. Young

65'

K. Phillips← O. Khan

70'

Callum Anthony Guy

75'

Jack Armer

85'

M. Mampala← S. Fishburn

88'

Rollin Menayese

88'

T. Abrahams↳ R. McDonald

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleWalsall

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots12

3Corners4

14Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots12

2On Target5

7Off Target5

2Blocked2

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

368Total Passes481

224Accurate Passes331

61%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1