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Carlisle vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Carlisle
Carlisle
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
5/8/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 46Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle39%
×Draw27%
Walsall34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.29
Walsall
1.17

Carlisle creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 156 away

creates per match

Carlisle
1.26
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Carlisle
1.21
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
66%
Carlisle or Walsall
73%
Draw or Walsall
61%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
18%
Walsall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
72%
Carlisle 2+ goals
37%
Carlisle 3+ goals
14%
Walsall 1+ goals
69%
Walsall 2+ goals
33%
Walsall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
54%
Walsall (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Walsall attack 1.13 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlisle scores more
39%
level
27%
Walsall scores more
34%

Carlisle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
J. RoseWalsallWalsall · G
7.7

Match Events

59'
C. Scott← J. Riley
67'
L. Alessandra← G. Touré
67'
W. McDonald← J. Gordon
79'
J. Dixon← O. Patrick
79'
T. Charters← J. Mellish
85'
J. Nolan← T. Wright
86'
C. Norman← H. White
90+2'
S. Sinclair← L. Kinsella
90+3'
J. Willis← E. Osadebe

Possession

55%Carlisle

Shots

12Carlisle

Pass accuracy

51%Carlisle

Statistics

CarlisleWalsall
Overview
55%Possession45%
12Total Shots7
1Corners2
15Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots7
4On Target3
4Off Target4
4Blocked0
5Inside Box4
7Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
230Total Passes191
135Accurate Passes109
59%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls15
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Carlisle vs Walsall

Carlisle and Walsall drew 0-0 in League Two on May 8, 2021.

Carlisle controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle, Cumbria.