Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carlisle vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Carlisle
Carlisle
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
R. Loft 42'
N. Anderton 21'
M. Sadler 50'
1/25/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle39%
×Draw27%
Walsall34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.29
Walsall
1.17

Carlisle creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 156 away

creates per match

Carlisle
1.26
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Carlisle
1.21
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
66%
Carlisle or Walsall
73%
Draw or Walsall
61%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
18%
Walsall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
72%
Carlisle 2+ goals
37%
Carlisle 3+ goals
14%
Walsall 1+ goals
69%
Walsall 2+ goals
33%
Walsall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
54%
Walsall (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Walsall attack 1.13 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlisle scores more
39%
level
27%
Walsall scores more
34%

Carlisle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. PringWalsallWalsall · D
7.3

Match Events

21'
N. Anderton
34'
Mike David Jones
36'
Byron Webster
42'
R. Loft↳ E. Watt
50'
M. Sadler↳ R. Holden
57'
D. Guthrie← L. Kinsella
62'
C. Norman← J. Clarke
71'
J. Nolan← R. Holden
75'
Stefan Scougall
78'
J. Bridge← R. Loft
81'
J. Iredale← S. Scougall
90+1'
T. Charters← L. Alessandra

Possession

43%Carlisle

Shots

6Carlisle

Pass accuracy

44%Carlisle

Statistics

CarlisleWalsall
Overview
43%Possession57%
6Total Shots10
6Corners6
25Fouls14
Shots
6Total Shots10
5On Target3
1Off Target3
0Blocked4
3Inside Box4
3Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
278Total Passes359
138Accurate Passes230
50%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
25Fouls14
3Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

League Two: Carlisle 2–1 Walsall

Carlisle beat Walsall 2-1 in League Two on January 25, 2020.

Goals: N. Anderton (21'), R. Loft (42'), M. Sadler (50').

Walsall controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle, Cumbria.