Carlisle 2–0 Southend: Result & Stats | League Two

Carlisle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Southend

J. Kayode 39'

O. Patrick 36'

9/19/2020

League Two · Round 2Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Carlisle43%

×Draw27%

Southend29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.05

Carlisle

1.34

Southend

1.05

Carlisle creates 28% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 31 away

1.26

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Southend

0.90

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Southend

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

71%

Carlisle or Southend

73%

Draw or Southend

57%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

20%

Southend wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

74%

Carlisle 2+ goals

39%

Carlisle 3+ goals

15%

Southend 1+ goals

65%

Southend 2+ goals

28%

Southend 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

60%

Southend (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Southend away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Southend defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Southend attack 0.90 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carlisle scores more

43%

level

27%

Southend scores more

29%

Carlisle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

A. Hayden

Carlisle · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

Nick Anderton

36'

O. Patrick

39'

J. Kayode↳ G. Touré

60'

L. Gard← A. McCormack

70'

L. Alessandra← J. Mellish

71'

T. Clifford← C. Kelman

74'

E. Walker← O. Patrick

81'

E. Kinali← B. Goodship

84'

G. Reilly← G. Touré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleSouthend

Overview

45%Possession55%

23Total Shots4

6Corners8

7Fouls7

Shots

23Total Shots4

7On Target1

10Off Target0

6Blocked3

17Inside Box1

6Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

354Total Passes422

246Accurate Passes282

69%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1