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Carlisle vs Reading — League One 2018

Carlisle
Carlisle
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Reading
Reading
3/2/2024League OneLeague One · Round 36Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Carlisle33%
×Draw25%
Reading42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.32
Reading
1.54

Reading creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 69 away

creates per match

Carlisle
1.00
Reading
1.32

allows per match

Carlisle
1.75
Reading
1.65

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
58%
Carlisle or Reading
75%
Draw or Reading
67%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
14%
Reading wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
73%
Carlisle 2+ goals
38%
Carlisle 3+ goals
15%
Reading 1+ goals
79%
Reading 2+ goals
45%
Reading 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
43%
Reading (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Reading away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.00 + Reading defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Reading attack 1.32 + Carlisle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carlisle scores more
33%
level
25%
Reading scores more
42%

Reading at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlisle vs Reading

Reading beat Carlisle 3-1 in League One on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle, Cumbria.