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Carlisle vs Plymouth — League Two 2018

Carlisle
Carlisle
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Plymouth
Plymouth
R. Hardie 75'
L. Jephcott 49', 33'
1/11/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 27Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Carlisle33%
×Draw27%
Plymouth39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.15
Plymouth
1.27

Plymouth creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 24 away

creates per match

Carlisle
1.26
Plymouth
1.33

allows per match

Carlisle
1.21
Plymouth
1.04

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
61%
Carlisle or Plymouth
73%
Draw or Plymouth
67%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
14%
Plymouth wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
68%
Carlisle 2+ goals
32%
Carlisle 3+ goals
11%
Plymouth 1+ goals
72%
Plymouth 2+ goals
36%
Plymouth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
46%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Plymouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Plymouth attack 1.33 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlisle scores more
33%
level
27%
Plymouth scores more
39%

Plymouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
L. JephcottPlymouthPlymouth · F
8.1

Match Events

33'
L. Jephcott↳ B. Moore
46'
S. Scougall← J. Bridge
49'
L. Jephcott↳ T. Bakinson
52'
R. Loft← N. Thomas
71'
R. Hardie← G. Cooper
74'
Tyreeq Bakinson
75'
R. Hardie↳ D. Mayor
79'
C. Grant← A. Sarcevic
84'
Aaron Hayden
89'
J. Riley← J. Edwards
90'
Aaron Hayden
90'
Aaron Hayden

Possession

44%Carlisle

Shots

11Carlisle

Pass accuracy

48%Carlisle

Statistics

CarlislePlymouth
Overview
44%Possession56%
11Total Shots17
3Corners6
9Fouls7
Shots
11Total Shots17
2On Target5
5Off Target5
4Blocked7
10Inside Box13
1Outside Box4
Passing
44%Possession56%
408Total Passes505
301Accurate Passes408
74%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

League Two: Carlisle 0–3 Plymouth

Plymouth beat Carlisle 3-0 in League Two on January 11, 2020.

Goals: L. Jephcott (33', 49'), R. Hardie (75').

Plymouth controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle, Cumbria.