Carlisle 1–3 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Oxford United

1/13/2024

League One · Round 28Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Carlisle29%

×Draw25%

Oxford United46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.56

Carlisle

1.19

Oxford United

1.56

Oxford United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 137 away

1.00

creates per match

1.36

1.75

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Carlisle

1.00

Oxford United

1.36

allows per match

Carlisle

1.75

Oxford United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

54%

Carlisle or Oxford United

75%

Draw or Oxford United

71%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

12%

Oxford United wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

70%

Carlisle 2+ goals

33%

Carlisle 3+ goals

12%

Oxford United 1+ goals

79%

Oxford United 2+ goals

46%

Oxford United 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

39%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.00 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Carlisle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Carlisle scores more

29%

level

25%

Oxford United scores more

46%

Oxford United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff