Carlisle 2–2 Northampton: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Northampton

12/16/2023

League One · Round 22Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Carlisle38%

×Draw26%

Northampton36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.35

Carlisle

1.39

Northampton

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 94 away

1.00

creates per match

0.96

1.75

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Carlisle

1.00

Northampton

0.96

allows per match

Carlisle

1.75

Northampton

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

64%

Carlisle or Northampton

74%

Draw or Northampton

62%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

18%

Northampton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

75%

Carlisle 2+ goals

40%

Carlisle 3+ goals

16%

Northampton 1+ goals

74%

Northampton 2+ goals

39%

Northampton 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

51%

Northampton (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.78 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.00 + Northampton defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Northampton attack 0.96 + Carlisle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Carlisle scores more

38%

level

26%

Northampton scores more

36%

Carlisle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff