Carlisle 1–1 Grimsby: Result & Stats | League Two

Carlisle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Grimsby

O. Zanzala 90+3'

L. John-Lewis 16'

3/9/2021

League Two · Round 35Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle40%

×Draw27%

Grimsby33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.18

Carlisle

1.32

Grimsby

1.18

Carlisle creates 12% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 138 away

1.26

creates per match

1.15

1.21

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Grimsby

1.15

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Grimsby

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

67%

Carlisle or Grimsby

73%

Draw or Grimsby

60%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

18%

Grimsby wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

73%

Carlisle 2+ goals

38%

Carlisle 3+ goals

15%

Grimsby 1+ goals

69%

Grimsby 2+ goals

33%

Grimsby 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

55%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carlisle scores more

40%

level

27%

Grimsby scores more

33%

Carlisle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Armer

Carlisle · D

7.3

Match Events

16'

L. John-Lewis↳ J. Lamy

31'

Aaron Hayden

46'

J. Bunney← S. Habergham

55'

Giles Coke

64'

O. Zanzala← T. Charters

68'

N. Anderton← A. Hayden

72'

H. Clifton← J. Lamy

80'

J. Mellish← J. Riley

80'

E. Walker← O. Patrick

90+2'

M. Green← L. John-Lewis

90+1'

L. Waterfall← Filipe Morais

90+3'

O. Zanzala↳ R. McDonald

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleGrimsby

Overview

52%Possession48%

8Total Shots7

4Corners4

14Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots7

4On Target2

2Off Target4

2Blocked1

5Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

327Total Passes296

183Accurate Passes128

56%Pass Accuracy43%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0