Carlisle 0–2 Derby: Result & Stats | League One

Carlisle

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Derby

J. Collins 84' (pen), 18'

9/23/2023

League One · Round 9Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Carlisle25%

×Draw26%

Derby49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.54

Carlisle

1.03

Derby

1.54

Derby creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

1.08

creates per match

1.39

1.69

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Carlisle

1.08

Derby

1.39

allows per match

Carlisle

1.69

Derby

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

51%

Carlisle or Derby

74%

Draw or Derby

75%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

9%

Derby wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

64%

Carlisle 2+ goals

28%

Carlisle 3+ goals

9%

Derby 1+ goals

79%

Derby 2+ goals

45%

Derby 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

34%

Derby (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.08 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Derby attack 1.39 + Carlisle defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carlisle scores more

25%

level

26%

Derby scores more

49%

Derby at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Collins

Derby · F

9.2

Match Events

18'

J. Collins↳ N. Mendez-Laing

61'

K. Wilson← M. Waghorn

68'

J. Garner← J. Mellish

69'

T. Ablade← L. Plange

75'

Eiran Joe Cashin

77'

R. Edmondson← S. Maguire

77'

J. Robinson← J. Armer

77'

T. Barkhuizen← L. Sibley

80'

C. Washington← N. Mendez-Laing

84'

J. CollinsPenalty

90+4'

Samuel Lavelle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleDerby

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots9

8Corners2

8Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots9

4On Target2

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

2Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

395Total Passes336

277Accurate Passes211

70%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0