Carlisle 1–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crawley Town

K. Dennis 5'

7/30/2022

League Two · Round 1Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle43%

×Draw26%

Crawley Town31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.19

Carlisle

1.44

Crawley Town

1.19

Carlisle creates 21% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 151 away

1.26

creates per match

1.17

1.21

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Crawley Town

1.17

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Crawley Town

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

69%

Carlisle or Crawley Town

74%

Draw or Crawley Town

57%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

21%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

76%

Carlisle 2+ goals

42%

Carlisle 3+ goals

18%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

70%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

33%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

58%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Crawley Town defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Crawley Town attack 1.17 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carlisle scores more

43%

level

26%

Crawley Town scores more

31%

Carlisle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

O. Moxon

Carlisle · M

7.7

Match Events

5'

K. Dennis↳ O. Moxon

22'

Jack Armer

46'

J. Hessenthaler← J. Powell

46'

C. Addai← E. Balcombe

55'

James Balagizi

64'

O. Patrick← K. Dennis

69'

T. Jenks← J. Balagizi

74'

Tobi Omole

76'

K. Appiah← T. Omole

78'

James Tilley

85'

C. Whelan← C. Guy

87'

E. Adebowale← G. Francomb

90+2'

S. Hilton← J. Gibson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleCrawley

Overview

34%Possession66%

23Total Shots6

6Corners4

9Fouls6

Shots

23Total Shots6

8On Target0

9Off Target3

6Blocked3

14Inside Box2

9Outside Box4

Passing

34%Possession66%

269Total Passes554

161Accurate Passes442

60%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls6

1Yellow Cards3

5Offsides3