Carlisle 0–2 Chesterfield: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chesterfield

W. Grigg 75'

D. Markanday 25'

12/14/2024

League Two · Round 20Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Carlisle36%

×Draw27%

Chesterfield37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.28

Carlisle

1.27

Chesterfield

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 74 away

1.26

creates per match

1.35

1.21

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Chesterfield

1.35

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Chesterfield

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

63%

Carlisle or Chesterfield

73%

Draw or Chesterfield

64%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

16%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

72%

Carlisle 2+ goals

36%

Carlisle 3+ goals

14%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

72%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

37%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

50%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Chesterfield defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chesterfield attack 1.35 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Carlisle scores more

36%

level

27%

Chesterfield scores more

37%

Chesterfield at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

W. Grigg

Chesterfield · F

7.9

Match Events

25'

D. Markanday↳ W. Grigg

32'

Josh Vela

46'

G. Kelly← J. Vela

46'

J. Grimes← L. Gordon

52'

Georgie Kelly

52'

Jamie Grimes

56'

H. Neal← T. Burey

61'

H. Biggins← J. Jones

61'

C. Guy← D. McGeouch

62'

T. Naylor← T. Williams

66'

B. Hobson← R. Colclough

67'

Aaron Hayden

73'

Ollie Banks

75'

W. Grigg

78'

J. Berry-McNally← A. Dobra

78'

K. Drummond← W. Grigg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleChesterfield

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots9

8Corners1

14Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target4

5Off Target2

3Blocked3

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

395Total Passes384

285Accurate Passes278

72%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2