Carlisle 1–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cheltenham

J. Mellish 45+3'

C. Thomas 36' (pen)

W. Boyle 15'

11/14/2020

League Two · Round 12Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Carlisle41%

×Draw27%

Cheltenham32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.14

Carlisle

1.32

Cheltenham

1.14

Carlisle creates 16% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 95 away

1.26

creates per match

1.06

1.21

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Cheltenham

1.06

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Cheltenham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

68%

Carlisle or Cheltenham

73%

Draw or Cheltenham

59%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

19%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

73%

Carlisle 2+ goals

38%

Carlisle 3+ goals

15%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

68%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

32%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

56%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carlisle scores more

41%

level

27%

Cheltenham scores more

32%

Carlisle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Tozer

Cheltenham · D

7.3

Match Events

15'

W. Boyle↳ B. Tozer

36'

C. ThomasPenalty

45+3'

J. Mellish

74'

M. Obiero← J. Riley

84'

R. Bennett← L. Alessandra

84'

G. Lloyd← A. May

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleCheltenham

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots8

6Corners4

12Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target3

5Off Target3

1Blocked2

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

386Total Passes303

243Accurate Passes164

63%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Offsides2