Carlisle 0–1 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cheltenham

R. Reid 26'

2/11/2020

League Two · Round 33Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Carlisle41%

×Draw27%

Cheltenham32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.14

Carlisle

1.32

Cheltenham

1.14

Carlisle creates 16% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 95 away

1.26

creates per match

1.06

1.21

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Cheltenham

1.06

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Cheltenham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

68%

Carlisle or Cheltenham

73%

Draw or Cheltenham

59%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

19%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

73%

Carlisle 2+ goals

38%

Carlisle 3+ goals

15%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

68%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

32%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

56%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carlisle scores more

41%

level

27%

Cheltenham scores more

32%

Carlisle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Doyle-Hayes

Cheltenham · M

7.9

Match Events

26'

R. Reid↳ B. Tozer

30'

Ryan Broom

46'

Gethin Jones

66'

L. Varney← R. Reid

74'

J. Iredale← N. Anderton

74'

R. Loft← C. Guy

75'

A. Addai← A. May

85'

R. Ince← M. Sheaf

87'

O. Olomola← M. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleCheltenham

Overview

59%Possession41%

10Total Shots11

8Corners7

9Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots11

1On Target4

5Off Target6

4Blocked1

4Inside Box9

6Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

394Total Passes282

278Accurate Passes165

71%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1