Carlisle 2–1 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Burton Albion

10/24/2023

League One · Round 15Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Carlisle34%

×Draw26%

Burton Albion40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.42

Carlisle

1.30

Burton Albion

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 179 away

1.00

creates per match

1.09

1.75

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Carlisle

1.00

Burton Albion

1.09

allows per match

Carlisle

1.75

Burton Albion

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

60%

Carlisle or Burton Albion

74%

Draw or Burton Albion

66%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

15%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

73%

Carlisle 2+ goals

37%

Carlisle 3+ goals

14%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

76%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

41%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

46%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.60 · 179 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.00 + Burton Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Burton Albion attack 1.09 + Carlisle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carlisle scores more

34%

level

26%

Burton Albion scores more

40%

Burton Albion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff