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Carlisle vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Carlisle
Carlisle
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
3/26/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 39Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Carlisle39%
×Draw26%
Bristol Rovers34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.35
Bristol Rovers
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 48 away

creates per match

Carlisle
1.31
Bristol Rovers
1.29

allows per match

Carlisle
1.20
Bristol Rovers
1.40

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
66%
Carlisle or Bristol Rovers
74%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
61%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
18%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
74%
Carlisle 2+ goals
39%
Carlisle 3+ goals
15%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
71%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
36%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
53%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.31 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bristol Rovers attack 1.29 + Carlisle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlisle scores more
39%
level
26%
Bristol Rovers scores more
34%

Carlisle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlisle vs Bristol Rovers

Carlisle beat Bristol Rovers 1-0 in League Two on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle, Cumbria.