Carlisle 1–0 Barrow: Result & Stats | League Two

Carlisle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barrow

J. Mellish 24'

10/3/2020

League Two · Round 4Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle42%

×Draw27%

Barrow30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.10

Carlisle

1.35

Barrow

1.10

Carlisle creates 23% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 138 away

1.26

creates per match

0.99

1.21

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Barrow

0.99

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Barrow

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

70%

Carlisle or Barrow

73%

Draw or Barrow

58%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

20%

Barrow wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

74%

Carlisle 2+ goals

39%

Carlisle 3+ goals

15%

Barrow 1+ goals

67%

Barrow 2+ goals

30%

Barrow 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

58%

Barrow (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Barrow attack 0.99 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carlisle scores more

42%

level

27%

Barrow scores more

30%

Carlisle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

P. Farman

Carlisle · G

8.2

Match Events

10'

Jon Mellish

24'

J. Mellish↳ G. Touré

55'

Aaron Hayden

65'

J. Kay← J. Jones

70'

73'

75'

77'

80'

84'

D. Devine← L. Alessandra

90'

Callum Anthony Guy

90'

Josh Kay

90'

Lewis Hardcastle

90'

T. Charters← G. Touré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleBarrow

Overview

32%Possession68%

11Total Shots12

2Corners4

16Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target6

5Off Target3

2Blocked3

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box6

Passing

32%Possession68%

217Total Passes458

128Accurate Passes375

59%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2