Barrow 1–2 Carlisle: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Carlisle

O. Banks 78'

K. Dennis 75'

J. Gibson 32'

3/19/2022

League Two · Round 38The Dunes Hotel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Barrow40%

×Draw28%

Carlisle32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.10

Barrow

1.27

Carlisle

1.10

Barrow creates 15% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 115 away

1.20

creates per match

1.07

1.12

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

68%

Barrow or Carlisle

72%

Draw or Carlisle

60%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

18%

Carlisle wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

72%

Barrow 2+ goals

36%

Barrow 3+ goals

14%

Carlisle 1+ goals

67%

Carlisle 2+ goals

30%

Carlisle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

56%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barrow scores more

40%

level

28%

Carlisle scores more

32%

Barrow at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Gibson

Carlisle · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

C. Whelan← C. Guy

32'

47'

59'

65'

72'

72'

J. Stevens← A. Driscoll-Glennon

75'

K. Dennis↳ D. Simeu

76'

Kristian Dennis

76'

D. Sea← A. Amadi-Holloway

78'

O. Banks

81'

Brennan Dickenson

90'

John Rooney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowCarlisle

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots10

5Corners7

7Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target2

4Off Target5

2Blocked3

6Inside Box4

3Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

331Total Passes291

207Accurate Passes149

63%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2