Carl Zeiss Jena 1–0 ZFC Meuselwitz: Result & Stats

Carl Zeiss Jena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ZFC Meuselwitz

E. Löder 52'

12/2/2023

League #85 · Nordost - 16Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena48%

×Draw24%

ZFC Meuselwitz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss JenaExpected goals in this matchZFC Meuselwitz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.25

Carl Zeiss Jena

1.72

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.25

Carl Zeiss Jena creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

1.94

creates per match

1.33

1.17

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena

1.94

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.33

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena

1.17

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

ZFC Meuselwitz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena ↓

ZFC Meuselwitz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena or draw

72%

Carl Zeiss Jena or ZFC Meuselwitz

76%

Draw or ZFC Meuselwitz

52%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+

26%

ZFC Meuselwitz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals

82%

Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals

51%

Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals

25%

ZFC Meuselwitz 1+ goals

71%

ZFC Meuselwitz 2+ goals

36%

ZFC Meuselwitz 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)

63%

ZFC Meuselwitz (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

ZFC Meuselwitz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena attack 1.94 + ZFC Meuselwitz defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.72

ZFC Meuselwitz attack 1.33 + Carl Zeiss Jena defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena scores more

48%

level

24%

ZFC Meuselwitz scores more

28%

Carl Zeiss Jena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

E. Löder

66'

A. Shoshi← M. Ulrich

72'

J. Dahlke← P. Verkamp

80'

L. Fischer← F. Hansch

86'

Jonathan Muiomo← K. Gipson

86'

C. Sakar← A. Kadrić

86'

C. Pauling← J. Pistol

90'

M. Grimm← E. Löder

90'

J. Endres← M. Krauß

Carl

ZFC

36

20

33

30

6

17

▼

Kadrić

22

▼

Hansch

7

Bock

9

Trübenbac

24

▼

Ulrich

18

▼

Pistol

1

Kunz

26

Butzen

3

▼

6

5

4

8

25

18

⚽

▼

Löder

7

▼

Verkamp

11

▼

Krauß

Manager: R. Klingbeil

72'▲J. Dahlke←▼P. Verkamp

86'▲Jonathan Muiomo←▼K. Gipson

90'▲M. Grimm←▼E. Löder

90'▲J. Endres←▼M. Krauß

Carl Zeiss Jena substitutes

9Dahlke10Muiomo21Grimm33Endres2Kleeschätzky20Nathaniel22Babke

Manager: G. Leopold

66'▲A. Shoshi←▼M. Ulrich

80'▲L. Fischer←▼F. Hansch

86'▲C. Sakar←▼A. Kadrić

86'▲C. Pauling←▼J. Pistol

ZFC Meuselwitz substitutes

11Shoshi23Fischer10Sakar19Pauling1Fietz3Rehder