Carl Zeiss Jena 0–2 Werder Bremen: Result & Stats

Carl Zeiss Jena

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Werder Bremen

T. Chong 88'

J. Sargent 49'

9/12/2020

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundErnst-Abbe-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena9%

×Draw16%

Werder Bremen75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss JenaExpected goals in this matchWerder Bremen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

2.52

Carl Zeiss Jena

0.77

Werder Bremen

2.52

Werder Bremen creates 227% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

0.33

creates per match

2.20

2.83

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena

0.33

Werder Bremen

2.20

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena

2.83

Werder Bremen

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

Werder Bremen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena ↓

Werder Bremen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–212%

0–310%

0–46%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena or draw

25%

Carl Zeiss Jena or Werder Bremen

84%

Draw or Werder Bremen

91%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+

3%

Werder Bremen wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals

54%

Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals

18%

Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals

4%

Werder Bremen 1+ goals

92%

Werder Bremen 2+ goals

71%

Werder Bremen 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)

11%

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Werder Bremen away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena attack 0.33 + Werder Bremen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Werder Bremen attack 2.20 + Carl Zeiss Jena defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena scores more

9%

level

16%

Werder Bremen scores more

75%

Werder Bremen at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Werder Bremen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Augustinsson

Werder Bremen · D

8.3

Match Events

13'

M. Oesterhelweg

40'

T. Steinherr

44'

Kunert D.

45+3'

D. Selke

45+3'

D. Slamar

46'

T. Chong← Y. Ōsako

46'

D. Klaassen← P. Erras

49'

J. Sargent↳ L. Augustinsson

60'

P. Verkamp← T. Bergmann

67'

R. Eckardt

70'

A. Prokopenko← T. Steinherr

74'

N. Füllkrug← D. Selke

74'

N. Woltemade← L. Bittencourt

88'

T. Chong↳ M. Eggestein

90+2'

C. Düzel← D. Bock

90+2'

L. Stauffer← R. Eckardt

90+2'

J. Eggestein← J. Sargent

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlWerder

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots22

2Corners9

8Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots22

3On Target4

4Off Target12

1Blocked6

2Inside Box16

6Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

336Total Passes533

241Accurate Passes430

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5