Carl Zeiss Jena 0–5 Hertha Berlin: Result & Stats

Carl Zeiss Jena

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Hertha Berlin

F. Uremović 59'

M. Richter 52', 49'

H. Tabaković 47'

P. Dárdai 6'

8/12/2023

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundErnst-Abbe-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena6%

×Draw12%

Hertha Berlin82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss JenaExpected goals in this matchHertha Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

2.87

Carl Zeiss Jena

0.67

Hertha Berlin

2.87

Hertha Berlin creates 328% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

0.33

creates per match

2.90

2.83

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena

0.33

Hertha Berlin

2.90

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena

2.83

Hertha Berlin

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena ↓

Hertha Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–212%

0–312%

0–48%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena or draw

18%

Carl Zeiss Jena or Hertha Berlin

88%

Draw or Hertha Berlin

94%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+

1%

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

62%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals

49%

Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals

15%

Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals

3%

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

94%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

77%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)

7%

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 2.90, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena attack 0.33 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Hertha Berlin attack 2.90 + Carl Zeiss Jena defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena scores more

6%

level

12%

Hertha Berlin scores more

82%

Hertha Berlin at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

M. Richter

Hertha Berlin · M

9.2

Match Events

6'

P. Dárdai↳ J. Dudziak

14'

Maurice Hehne

46'

E. Löder← J. Schau

46'

B. Zank← P. Verkamp

46'

L. Gechter← M. Dárdai

47'

H. Tabaković↳ F. Reese

49'

M. Richter↳ T. Leistner

52'

M. Richter↳ F. Reese

57'

F. Uremović← T. Leistner

57'

V. Stange← S. Serdar

59'

F. Uremović↳ H. Tabaković

60'

J. Muiomo← J. Richter

60'

J. Dahlke← J. Endres

70'

S. Prevljak← H. Tabaković

70'

B. Dárdai← M. Richter

72'

F. Kleeschätzky← M. Hoppe

75'

Linus Gechter

82'

Lukas Lämmel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlHertha

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots21

4Corners7

5Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots21

2On Target13

5Off Target5

4Blocked3

7Inside Box16

4Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

395Total Passes525

327Accurate Passes451

83%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena vs Hertha Berlin

Hertha Berlin beat Carl Zeiss Jena 5-0 in DFB Pokal on August 12, 2023.

Goals: P. Dárdai (6'), H. Tabaković (47'), M. Richter (49', 52'), F. Uremović (59').

Hertha Berlin controlled possession (57%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld in Jena.

Carl Zeiss Jena vs Hertha Berlin — DFB Pokal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena vs Hertha Berlin