Carl Zeiss Jena 1–1 1. FC Köln: Result & Stats

Carl Zeiss Jena

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

1. FC Köln

R. Lange 120+7' (pen)

V. Dedidis 120+5' (pen)

M. Wolfram 5'

O. Duda 120+8' (pen)

J. Thielmann 120+6' (pen)

L. Schaub 120+4' (pen)

T. Lemperle 120+3' (pen)

E. Skhiri 69'

8/8/2021

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundErnst-Abbe-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena9%

×Draw14%

1. FC Köln77%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss JenaExpected goals in this match1. FC Köln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

2.81

Carl Zeiss Jena

0.86

1. FC Köln

2.81

1. FC Köln creates 227% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

0.33

creates per match

2.80

2.83

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena

0.33

1. FC Köln

2.80

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena

2.83

1. FC Köln

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

1. FC Köln+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena ↓

1. FC Köln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–210%

0–310%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena or draw

23%

Carl Zeiss Jena or 1. FC Köln

86%

Draw or 1. FC Köln

91%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+

3%

1. FC Köln wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals

58%

Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals

21%

Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals

6%

1. FC Köln 1+ goals

94%

1. FC Köln 2+ goals

76%

1. FC Köln 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)

10%

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

1. FC Köln away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena attack 0.33 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

1. FC Köln attack 2.80 + Carl Zeiss Jena defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena scores more

9%

level

14%

1. FC Köln scores more

77%

1. FC Köln at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Sedlak

Carl Zeiss Jena · G

9.2

Match Events

5'

44'

55'

68'

68'

S. Andersson← F. Kainz

69'

E. Skhiri↳ M. Uth

77'

O. Duda← K. Ehizibue

79'

L. Bürger← M. Krauß

80'

M. Hoppe← M. Langer

90+3'

V. Dedidis← T. Bergmann

90'

A. Prokopenko← J. Schau

92'

Rafael Czichos

97'

T. Lemperle← A. Modeste

97'

L. Schaub← M. Uth

120+1'

M. OesterhelwegMissed penalty

120+2'

L. BürgerMissed penalty

120+3'

T. LemperlePenalty

120+4'

L. SchaubPenalty

120+5'

V. DedidisPenalty

120+6'

J. ThielmannPenalty

120+7'

R. LangePenalty

120+8'

O. DudaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Carl1.

Overview

28%Possession72%

5Total Shots44

0Corners14

18Fouls14

Shots

5Total Shots44

1On Target11

3Off Target15

1Blocked18

2Inside Box26

3Outside Box18

Passing

28%Possession72%

338Total Passes819

182Accurate Passes687

54%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

10Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1