Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1–5 Wolfsburg U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Wolfsburg U19

11/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Round 11Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1931%

×Draw21%

Wolfsburg U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19Expected goals in this matchWolfsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

2.15

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.68

Wolfsburg U19

2.15

Wolfsburg U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 70 away

2.15

creates per match

2.30

2.00

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.15

Wolfsburg U19

2.30

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.00

Wolfsburg U19

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw

51%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or Wolfsburg U19

79%

Draw or Wolfsburg U19

69%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

15%

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

81%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

50%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

24%

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

88%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

63%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 2.15, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 2.15 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.68

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.30 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

31%

level

21%

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

49%

Wolfsburg U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff