Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1–2 Hallescher FC U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hallescher FC U19

P. Kampe 53'

E. Stobbe 72'

Mohamed Samadi 19'

8/3/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 1Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1952%

×Draw20%

Hallescher FC U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19Expected goals in this matchHallescher FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.62

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.26

Hallescher FC U19

1.62

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 37 away

2.02

creates per match

1.24

2.00

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.02

Hallescher FC U19

1.24

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.00

Hallescher FC U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

Hallescher FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw

72%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or Hallescher FC U19

80%

Draw or Hallescher FC U19

48%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

31%

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

89%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

66%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

39%

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

80%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

48%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.00 · 60 matches

Hallescher FC U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 2.02 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.26

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.24 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

52%

level

20%

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

28%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Mohamed Samadi

40'

J. Wagner← N. Hüttig

46'

R. Steinhäuser← S. Yüksel

53'

P. Kampe

63'

L. Winkler← M. Lanzendörfer

68'

K. Müller← R. Hasani

68'

D. Bartholome← Mohamed Samadi

68'

D. Zürn← F. Kuhnert

72'

E. Stobbe

81'

B. Efevberha← L. Fink

81'

C. Haase← L. Schoima

81'

I. Hetmanchuk← N. Konradi

89'

J. Dolla← E. Stobbe

Carl

Hallescher

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Samadi

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Raychouni

46'▲R. Steinhäuser←▼S. Yüksel

63'▲L. Winkler←▼M. Lanzendörfer

68'▲K. Müller←▼R. Hasani

81'▲B. Efevberha←▼L. Fink

81'▲C. Haase←▼L. Schoima

81'▲I. Hetmanchuk←▼N. Konradi

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

SteinhäuserWinklerMüllerEfevberhaHaaseHetmanchukFendel

Manager: T. Donath

40'▲J. Wagner←▼N. Hüttig

68'▲D. Bartholome←▼Mohamed Samadi

68'▲D. Zürn←▼F. Kuhnert

89'▲J. Dolla←▼E. Stobbe

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

WagnerBartholomeZürnDollaSchneiderLangerPörschmann

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Hallescher FC U19

Hallescher FC U19 beat Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 3, 2024.

Goals: Mohamed Samadi (19'), P. Kampe (53'), E. Stobbe (72').

The match was played at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3 in Jena.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Hallescher FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Hallescher FC U19