Carl Zeiss Jena U19 4–1 Dynamo Dresden U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dynamo Dresden U19

11/2/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 11Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1943%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Dresden U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.79

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.00

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.79

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 74 away

2.15

creates per match

1.58

2.00

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.15

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.58

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.00

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw

65%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19

79%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19

57%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

24%

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

86%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

59%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

32%

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

83%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

53%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 2.15, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.86 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 2.15 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.00

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.58 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

43%

level

21%

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

35%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff