Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1–3 Borussia Dortmund U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Borussia Dortmund U19

E. Rosner 59'

B. Fink 90+3' (pen), 70'

D. Thoma 53' (OG)

11/6/2021

DFB Junioren Pokal · Round of 16Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1927%

×Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund U1952%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.15

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.52

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.15

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

2.63

1.67

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.67

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.63

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.67

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw

48%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

79%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

73%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

12%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

78%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

45%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

20%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

88%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

63%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.67 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.63 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

27%

level

21%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

52%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

N. Mrosek← T. Rothe

53'

D. ThomaOwn goal

57'

B. Fink← J. Rijkhoff

59'

E. Rosner

64'

D. Lütke-Frie← M. Ludwig

65'

65'

70'

73'

82'

82'

83'

86'

90+3'

B. FinkPenalty

Carl

Borussia

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Küntzel

73'▲S. Feistner←▼G. Koca

82'▲J. Schmidt←▼D. Thoma

82'▲M. Grimm←▼M. Robotta

86'▲L. Fischer←▼V. Tunc

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

FeistnerSchmidtGrimmFischerAlipekKamenzJahnke

Manager: M. Tullberg

39'▲N. Mrosek←▼T. Rothe

57'▲B. Fink←▼J. Rijkhoff

64'▲D. Lütke-Frie←▼M. Ludwig

83'▲A. Mengot←▼G. Gürpüz

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

MrosekFinkLütke-FrieMengotDudekBlankDühring

DFB Junioren Pokal: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1–3 Borussia Dortmund U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3-1 in DFB Junioren Pokal on November 6, 2021.

Goals: D. Thoma (53' o.g.), E. Rosner (59'), B. Fink (70', 90+3' pen).

The match was played at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3 in Jena.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

DFB Junioren Pokal: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1–3 Borussia Dortmund U19