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Cariri vs Maranguape — Cearense - 2 2019

Cariri
Cariri
FT
2 – 0
Maranguape
Maranguape
7/1/2021Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · Round 3Estádio Municipal Governador Virgílio Távora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cariri45%
×Draw29%
Maranguape26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariri
1.25
Maranguape
0.89

Cariri creates 40% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cariri
1.33
Maranguape
1.06

allows per match

Cariri
0.72
Maranguape
1.16

finishing

Cariri+0.00on par
Maranguape+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariri ↓

Maranguape →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cariri or draw
74%
Cariri or Maranguape
71%
Draw or Maranguape
55%

Winning margin

Cariri wins by 2+
20%
Maranguape wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cariri 1+ goals
71%
Cariri 2+ goals
36%
Cariri 3+ goals
13%
Maranguape 1+ goals
59%
Maranguape 2+ goals
22%
Maranguape 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cariri (draw refunded)
63%
Maranguape (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariri at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Maranguape away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariri attack 1.33 + Maranguape defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Maranguape attack 1.06 + Cariri defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cariri scores more
45%
level
29%
Maranguape scores more
26%

Cariri at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cariri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cearense - 2: Cariri 2–0 Maranguape

Cariri beat Maranguape 2-0 in Cearense - 2 on July 1, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Governador Virgílio Távora in Crato, Ceará.