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Cariri vs Itapipoca — Cearense - 2 2019

Cariri
Cariri
FT
0 – 0
Itapipoca
Itapipoca
2/17/2024Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Mauro Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cariri47%
×Draw27%
Itapipoca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariri
1.42
Itapipoca
0.98

Cariri creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 37 away

creates per match

Cariri
1.33
Itapipoca
1.24

allows per match

Cariri
0.72
Itapipoca
1.51

finishing

Cariri+0.00on par
Itapipoca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariri ↓

Itapipoca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cariri or draw
74%
Cariri or Itapipoca
73%
Draw or Itapipoca
53%

Winning margin

Cariri wins by 2+
23%
Itapipoca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cariri 1+ goals
76%
Cariri 2+ goals
41%
Cariri 3+ goals
17%
Itapipoca 1+ goals
62%
Itapipoca 2+ goals
26%
Itapipoca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cariri (draw refunded)
64%
Itapipoca (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariri at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Itapipoca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariri attack 1.33 + Itapipoca defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Itapipoca attack 1.24 + Cariri defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cariri scores more
47%
level
27%
Itapipoca scores more
26%

Cariri at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cariri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cearense - 2: Cariri 0–0 Itapipoca

Cariri and Itapipoca drew 0-0 in Cearense - 2 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Mauro Sampaio in Juazeiro do Norte, Ceará.