Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cariñena vs Villanueva CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Cariñena
Cariñena
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
3/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 1Campo de Futbol La Platera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cariñena48%
×Draw25%
Villanueva CF26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariñena
1.56
Villanueva CF
1.08

Cariñena creates 44% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

creates per match

Cariñena
1.34
Villanueva CF
0.73

allows per match

Cariñena
1.43
Villanueva CF
1.77

finishing

Cariñena+0.00on par
Villanueva CF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariñena ↓

Villanueva CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cariñena or draw
74%
Cariñena or Villanueva CF
75%
Draw or Villanueva CF
52%

Winning margin

Cariñena wins by 2+
25%
Villanueva CF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cariñena 1+ goals
79%
Cariñena 2+ goals
46%
Cariñena 3+ goals
21%
Villanueva CF 1+ goals
66%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
29%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cariñena (draw refunded)
65%
Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariñena at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.43 · 82 matches

Villanueva CF away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariñena attack 1.34 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Villanueva CF attack 0.73 + Cariñena defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cariñena scores more
48%
level
25%
Villanueva CF scores more
26%

Cariñena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Cariñena 2–2 Villanueva CF

Cariñena and Villanueva CF drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol La Platera in Zaragoza.