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Cariñena vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Cariñena
Cariñena
FT
3 – 0
San Juan Mozarrifar
San Juan Mozarrifar
2/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 19Campo de Futbol La Platera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Cariñena55%
×Draw24%
San Juan Mozarrifar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariñena
1.71
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.94

Cariñena creates 82% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 24 away

creates per match

Cariñena
1.34
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.46

allows per match

Cariñena
1.43
San Juan Mozarrifar
2.08

finishing

Cariñena+0.00on par
San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariñena ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cariñena or draw
79%
Cariñena or San Juan Mozarrifar
76%
Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar
45%

Winning margin

Cariñena wins by 2+
31%
San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cariñena 1+ goals
82%
Cariñena 2+ goals
51%
Cariñena 3+ goals
24%
San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals
61%
San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals
24%
San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cariñena (draw refunded)
73%
San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariñena at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.43 · 82 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariñena attack 1.34 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Cariñena defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cariñena scores more
55%
level
24%
San Juan Mozarrifar scores more
21%

Cariñena at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariñena vs San Juan Mozarrifar

Cariñena beat San Juan Mozarrifar 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol La Platera in Zaragoza.