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Cariñena vs Sabiñánigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Cariñena
Cariñena
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sabiñánigo
Sabiñánigo
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 8Campo de Futbol La Platera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cariñena43%
×Draw25%
Sabiñánigo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariñena
1.55
Sabiñánigo
1.33

Cariñena creates 17% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cariñena
1.34
Sabiñánigo
1.24

allows per match

Cariñena
1.43
Sabiñánigo
1.76

finishing

Cariñena+0.00on par
Sabiñánigo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariñena ↓

Sabiñánigo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cariñena or draw
67%
Cariñena or Sabiñánigo
75%
Draw or Sabiñánigo
57%

Winning margin

Cariñena wins by 2+
21%
Sabiñánigo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cariñena 1+ goals
79%
Cariñena 2+ goals
46%
Cariñena 3+ goals
20%
Sabiñánigo 1+ goals
74%
Sabiñánigo 2+ goals
38%
Sabiñánigo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cariñena (draw refunded)
57%
Sabiñánigo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariñena at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.43 · 82 matches

Sabiñánigo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariñena attack 1.34 + Sabiñánigo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sabiñánigo attack 1.24 + Cariñena defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cariñena scores more
43%
level
25%
Sabiñánigo scores more
33%

Cariñena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Cariñena 3–0 Sabiñánigo

Cariñena beat Sabiñánigo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol La Platera in Zaragoza.