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Cariñena vs Illueca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Cariñena
Cariñena
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Illueca
Illueca
2/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 20Campo de Futbol La Platera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Cariñena40%
×Draw26%
Illueca34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariñena
1.38
Illueca
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 93 away

creates per match

Cariñena
1.34
Illueca
1.10

allows per match

Cariñena
1.43
Illueca
1.42

finishing

Cariñena+0.00on par
Illueca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariñena ↓

Illueca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cariñena or draw
66%
Cariñena or Illueca
74%
Draw or Illueca
60%

Winning margin

Cariñena wins by 2+
18%
Illueca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cariñena 1+ goals
75%
Cariñena 2+ goals
40%
Cariñena 3+ goals
16%
Illueca 1+ goals
72%
Illueca 2+ goals
36%
Illueca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cariñena (draw refunded)
53%
Illueca (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariñena at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.43 · 82 matches

Illueca away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.42 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariñena attack 1.34 + Illueca defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Illueca attack 1.10 + Cariñena defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cariñena scores more
40%
level
26%
Illueca scores more
34%

Cariñena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Cariñena 2–3 Illueca

Illueca beat Cariñena 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol La Platera in Zaragoza.