Cariñena 0–1 Ebro: Result & Stats

Cariñena

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ebro

2/25/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 22Campo de Futbol La Platera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cariñena28%

×Draw27%

Ebro45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CariñenaExpected goals in this matchEbro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.36

Cariñena

1.00

Ebro

1.36

Ebro creates 36% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 34 away

1.34

creates per match

1.29

1.43

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Cariñena

1.34

Ebro

1.29

allows per match

Cariñena

1.43

Ebro

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cariñena+0.00on par

Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariñena ↓

Ebro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cariñena or draw

55%

Cariñena or Ebro

73%

Draw or Ebro

72%

Winning margin

Cariñena wins by 2+

10%

Ebro wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Cariñena 1+ goals

63%

Cariñena 2+ goals

26%

Cariñena 3+ goals

8%

Ebro 1+ goals

74%

Ebro 2+ goals

39%

Ebro 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cariñena (draw refunded)

38%

Ebro (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariñena at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.43 · 82 matches

Ebro away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariñena attack 1.34 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ebro attack 1.29 + Cariñena defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cariñena scores more

28%

level

27%

Ebro scores more

45%

Ebro at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff