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Cariñena vs Calamocha — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Cariñena
Cariñena
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Calamocha
Calamocha
11/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 10Campo de Futbol La Platera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Cariñena36%
×Draw27%
Calamocha37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariñena
1.21
Calamocha
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 110 away

creates per match

Cariñena
1.34
Calamocha
1.01

allows per match

Cariñena
1.43
Calamocha
1.07

finishing

Cariñena+0.00on par
Calamocha+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariñena ↓

Calamocha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cariñena or draw
63%
Cariñena or Calamocha
73%
Draw or Calamocha
64%

Winning margin

Cariñena wins by 2+
15%
Calamocha wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cariñena 1+ goals
70%
Cariñena 2+ goals
34%
Cariñena 3+ goals
12%
Calamocha 1+ goals
70%
Calamocha 2+ goals
34%
Calamocha 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cariñena (draw refunded)
50%
Calamocha (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariñena at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.43 · 82 matches

Calamocha away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariñena attack 1.34 + Calamocha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Calamocha attack 1.01 + Cariñena defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cariñena scores more
36%
level
27%
Calamocha scores more
37%

Calamocha at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariñena vs Calamocha

Calamocha beat Cariñena 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol La Platera in Zaragoza.