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Cariñena vs Belchite 97 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Cariñena
Cariñena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Belchite 97
Belchite 97
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 21Campo de Futbol La Platera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Cariñena39%
×Draw28%
Belchite 9734%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariñena
1.26
Belchite 97
1.15

Cariñena creates 10% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 95 away

creates per match

Cariñena
1.34
Belchite 97
0.87

allows per match

Cariñena
1.43
Belchite 97
1.18

finishing

Cariñena+0.00on par
Belchite 97+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariñena ↓

Belchite 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cariñena or draw
66%
Cariñena or Belchite 97
72%
Draw or Belchite 97
61%

Winning margin

Cariñena wins by 2+
17%
Belchite 97 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cariñena 1+ goals
72%
Cariñena 2+ goals
36%
Cariñena 3+ goals
13%
Belchite 97 1+ goals
68%
Belchite 97 2+ goals
32%
Belchite 97 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cariñena (draw refunded)
54%
Belchite 97 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariñena at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.43 · 82 matches

Belchite 97 away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.18 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariñena attack 1.34 + Belchite 97 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.26

Belchite 97 attack 0.87 + Cariñena defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cariñena scores more
39%
level
28%
Belchite 97 scores more
34%

Cariñena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariñena vs Belchite 97

Cariñena beat Belchite 97 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol La Platera in Zaragoza.