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Cariñena vs Atlético Monzón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Cariñena
Cariñena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2Campo de Futbol La Platera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Cariñena35%
×Draw27%
Atlético Monzón39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariñena
1.23
Atlético Monzón
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 115 away

creates per match

Cariñena
1.34
Atlético Monzón
1.22

allows per match

Cariñena
1.43
Atlético Monzón
1.13

finishing

Cariñena+0.00on par
Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariñena ↓

Atlético Monzón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cariñena or draw
61%
Cariñena or Atlético Monzón
73%
Draw or Atlético Monzón
65%

Winning margin

Cariñena wins by 2+
15%
Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cariñena 1+ goals
71%
Cariñena 2+ goals
35%
Cariñena 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cariñena (draw refunded)
47%
Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariñena at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.43 · 82 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariñena attack 1.34 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Cariñena defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cariñena scores more
35%
level
27%
Atlético Monzón scores more
39%

Atlético Monzón at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Cariñena 1–1 Atlético Monzón

Cariñena and Atlético Monzón drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol La Platera in Zaragoza.