Carina Gubin 1–2 Śląsk Wrocław II: Result & Stats

Carina Gubin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Śląsk Wrocław II

3/2/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carina Gubin26%

×Draw24%

Śląsk Wrocław II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carina GubinExpected goals in this matchŚląsk Wrocław II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.71

Carina Gubin

1.16

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.71

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

1.38

creates per match

2.12

1.29

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Carina Gubin

1.38

Śląsk Wrocław II

2.12

allows per match

Carina Gubin

1.29

Śląsk Wrocław II

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw

50%

Carina Gubin or Śląsk Wrocław II

76%

Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II

74%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+

10%

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals

69%

Carina Gubin 2+ goals

32%

Carina Gubin 3+ goals

11%

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals

82%

Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals

51%

Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)

34%

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.12 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Carina Gubin scores more

26%

level

24%

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more

50%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff