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Carina Gubin vs Podlesianka — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Podlesianka
Podlesianka
10/31/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Carina Gubin41%
×Draw25%
Podlesianka34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carina Gubin
1.54
Podlesianka
1.38

Carina Gubin creates 12% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

Carina Gubin
1.38
Podlesianka
1.47

allows per match

Carina Gubin
1.29
Podlesianka
1.71

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par
Podlesianka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Podlesianka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw
66%
Carina Gubin or Podlesianka
75%
Draw or Podlesianka
59%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+
20%
Podlesianka wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals
79%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
45%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
20%
Podlesianka 1+ goals
75%
Podlesianka 2+ goals
40%
Podlesianka 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
55%
Podlesianka (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Podlesianka away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Podlesianka defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Podlesianka attack 1.47 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carina Gubin scores more
41%
level
25%
Podlesianka scores more
34%

Carina Gubin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Carina Gubin 4–1 Podlesianka

Carina Gubin beat Podlesianka 4-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Gubin in Gubin.